{"id":6395,"date":"2021-03-08T15:25:11","date_gmt":"2021-03-08T15:25:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iquanta.in\/blog\/?p=6395"},"modified":"2022-02-13T23:50:22","modified_gmt":"2022-02-13T18:20:22","slug":"iran-nuclear-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.iquanta.in\/blog\/iran-nuclear-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran Nuclear Deal"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a<\/span> landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015.<\/span> Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more<\/span> extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars\u2019 worth of sanctions relief.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald J. Trump withdrew the United States from<\/span> it in 2018. In retaliation for the U.S. departure and for deadly attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020,<\/span> including one by the United States, Iran has resumed some of its nuclear activities. President Joe Biden has<\/span> said the United States will return to the deal if Iran comes back into compliance, but analysts say that<\/span> renewed diplomacy would have to overcome major political hurdles. And a revival of Iran\u2019s nuclear<\/span> weapons program would dramatically escalate tensions in the Middle East, they say, raising the prospects<\/span> for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Who are the participants?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

The JCPOA, which went into effect in January 2016, imposes restrictions on Iran\u2019s civilian nuclear<\/span> enrichment program. At the heart of negotiations with Iran were the five permanent members of the UN<\/span> Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and<\/span> Germany\u2014collectively known as the P5+1. The European Union also took part.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Some Middle Eastern powers, such as Saudi Arabia, said they should have been consulted or included in<\/span> the talks because they would be most affected by a nuclear-armed Iran. Israel explicitly opposed the<\/span> agreement, calling it too lenient.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Does it prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Many experts say that if all parties adhered to their pledges, the deal almost certainly could have achieved<\/span> that goal for longer than a decade. Many of the <\/span>JCPOA\u2019s restrictions <\/span>on Iran\u2019s nuclear program have<\/span> expiration dates. For example, after ten years (from January 2016), centrifuge restrictions will be lifted,<\/span> and after fifteen years, so too will limits on the amount of low-enriched uranium Iran can possess. Some of<\/span><\/p>\n

the deal\u2019s opponents faulted these so-called sunset provisions, saying they would only delay Iran building a<\/span> b<\/span>omb while sanctions relief would allow it to underwrite terrorism in the region.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What did Iran agree to?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

N<\/span><\/i>uclear restrictions. <\/span><\/i>Iran agreed not to produce either the highly enriched uranium or the plutonium that<\/span> could be used in a nuclear weapon. It also took steps to ensure that its Fordow, Natanz, and Arak facilities<\/span> p<\/span>ursued only civilian work, including medical and industrial research.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

M<\/span><\/i>onitoring and verification<\/span><\/i>.<\/span> Iran agreed to eventually implement a protocol that would allow inspectors<\/span> from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations\u2019 nuclear watchdog, unfettered<\/span> access to its nuclear facilities and potentially to undeclared sites. Inspections are intended to guard against<\/span> the possibility that Iran could develop nuclear arms in secret, as it has allegedly <\/span>attempted before<\/span>. The<\/span> IAEA has <\/span>issued quarterly reports <\/span>to its board of governors and the UN Security Council on Iran\u2019s<\/span> implementation of its nuclear commitments.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What did the other signatories agree to?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Sanctions relief. <\/span><\/i>The EU, United Nations, and United States all committed to lifting their nuclear-related<\/span> sanctions on Iran. However, many <\/span>other U.S. sanctions <\/span>on Iran, some dating back to the 1979 hostage<\/span> crisis, remained in effect. They cover matters such as Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program, support for terrorist<\/span> groups, and human rights abuses. Though the United States committed to lifting its sanctions on oil<\/span> exports, it kept<\/span>restrictions on financial transactions<\/span>, which have deterred international trade with Iran.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Weapons embargo<\/span><\/i>.<\/span> The parties agreed to lift an <\/span>existing UN ban<\/span>[PDF] on Iran\u2019s transfer of conventional<\/span> weapons and ballistic missiles after five years if the IAEA certifies that Iran is only engaged in civilian<\/span> nuclear activity.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

How is the Iran deal enforced?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

If any signatory suspects Iran is violating the deal, the UN Security Council may vote on whether to<\/span> continue sanctions relief. This \u201csnapback\u201d mechanism remains in effect for ten years, after which the UN<\/span> sanctions are set to be permanently removed.<\/span><\/p>\n

In April 2020, the United States announced its intention to snap back sanctions. The other P5 members<\/span> objected to the move<\/span>, saying the United States could not unilaterally implement the mechanism because it<\/span> left the nuclear deal in 2018.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Did Iran comply initially?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

The agreement got off to a fairly smooth start. The IAEA certified in early 2016 that Iran had met its<\/span> p<\/span>reliminary pledges; and the United States, EU, and United Nations responded by <\/span>repealing or suspending<\/span> their sanctions<\/span>. Most significantly, U.S. President Barack Obama\u2019s administration dropped secondary<\/span> sanctions on the oil sector, which allowed Iran to ramp up its oil exports to <\/span>nearly the level <\/span>it was prior to<\/span> sanctions. The United States and many European nations also unfroze about $100 billion worth of frozen<\/span> Iranian assets.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the deal has been near collapse since President Trump withdrew the United States from it in<\/span> 2018 and reinstated devastating banking and oil sanctions. Trump said the agreement failed to address<\/span> Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program and its proxy warfare in the region, and he claimed that the sunset<\/span> p<\/span>rovisions would enable Iran to pursue nuclear weapons in the future.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Following the U.S. withdrawal, several countries\u2014U.S. allies among them\u2014continued to import Iranian<\/span> oil under waivers granted by the Trump administration, and Iran continued to abide by its commitments.<\/span> But a year later, the United States ended the waivers with the aim of halting Iran\u2019s oil exports completely.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What is Iran\u2019s current nuclear activity?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

In response to the other parties\u2019 actions, which Tehran claimed amounted to breaches of the deal, Iran<\/span> started breaching the contract.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

How has the deal affected Iran\u2019s economy?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Prior to the JCPOA, <\/span>Iran\u2019s economy suffered <\/span>years of recession, currency depreciation, and inflation,<\/span> largely because of sanctions on its energy sector. With the sanctions lifted, inflation slowed, exchange rates<\/span> stabilized, and exports\u2014especially of oil, agricultural goods, and luxury items\u2014skyrocketed as Iran<\/span> regained trading partners, particularly in the EU. After the JCPOA took effect, Iran began exporting more<\/span><\/p>\n

than 2.1 million barrels per day (approaching pre-2012 levels, when the oil sanctions were originally put in<\/span> p<\/span>lace). However, these improvements did not translate to a significant increase in the average Iranian<\/span> household\u2019s budget.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The end of sanctions waivers on oil exports and the restoration of U.S. sanctions in 2018 has once again<\/span> cut deeply into a vital source of national revenue: oil and petroleum products account for <\/span>80 percent <\/span>[PDF]<\/span> of Iran\u2019s exports.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What is the outlook for the agreement?<\/b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

The fate of the Iran nuclear deal remains uncertain. Biden has said the United States <\/span>will rejoin the<\/span> agreement <\/span>if Iran returns to compliance, but that he also wants to negotiate a successor agreement to<\/span> address Iran\u2019s other activities, such as its missile program.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran has called for the United States to return to the deal but has said it is not willing to discuss expanding<\/span> the accord further. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif <\/span>told CFR <\/span>in September 2020 that Iran will<\/span> \u201cabsolutely not\u201d renegotiate and that the United States should compensate Iran for damages caused by<\/span> sanctions, which he says <\/span>amount to $1 trillion<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the prospects for new negotiations could dim come June 2021, when Iran is set to elect a new<\/span> p<\/span>resident. Many analysts say a conservative, hard-line candidate will likely replace President Rouhani,<\/span> whose popularity has plummeted with the unraveling of the nuclear deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015. 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